China eyes fivefold jump in solar capacity

China.org has an article on China's ever-increasing solar power targets - China eyes fivefold jump in solar capacity.

China is aiming for a fivefold increase in solar power generating capacity by 2015 to shore up domestic solar panel makers that are struggling with overcapacity.

The country aims to install about 10 gigawatts of solar capacity annually from 2013-2015, bringing the total to more than 35GW by the end of 2015, according to a State Council statement posted on the central government's website yesterday.

The 35GW target, which has been previously revealed by senior energy officials, is higher than the 21GW target announced by the National Energy Administration last year.

Boosting the domestic market will help Chinese solar panel makers, the world's No. 1 producers, to cut their reliance on foreign markets at a time when trade disputes with Europe and the United States are hitting China's exports.

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China consumes nearly as much coal as the rest of the world combined

Stuart at Early Warning points to this article on Chinese coal consumption - good for Australian coal miners (other than when they get flooded each year), bad for everyone else - China consumes nearly as much coal as the rest of the world combined

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Chinese to develop Afghan oil field

The Gulf Daily News reports on a move by China to extract oil in Afghanistan - Afghanistan clears CNPC accord.

Afghanistan's cabinet cleared the way for the war-torn state to sign a deal with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for the development of oil blocks in the Amu Darya basin, the president's office said yesterday. ...

The deal covering drilling and a refinery in the northern provinces of Sar-e Pul and Faryab will be the first international oil production accord by the government for decades. It marks the second major deal for China, after Metallurgical Corporation of China signed a contract in 2008 to develop the huge Aynak copper mine south of Kabul, due to start producing by 2014-end.

State-owned CNPC and joint venture partner Watan Group, a diversified Afghan company, will explore for oil in Kashkari, Bazarkhami and Zamarudsay, which are estimated to hold around 87 million barrels of oil. ...

Indian and Chinese bidders have been front-runners to develop Afghanistan's vast mineral deposits, valued at $3 trillion, worrying Western firms that have hesitated to invest.

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China's LNG demand questioned

The Australian has a stunningly suspect article downplaying the prospects for Australian LNG exports to China. Given that these LNG projects only get built when long term supply deals are signed with Asian customers (who often take an equity stake in the projects) its hard to understand the motive here (no pipeline from Russia seems likely in the next decade and the prospect of US shale gas LNG exports being significantly cheaper than Australian natural gas or coal seam gas LNG exports doesn't seem particularly plausible either).

Nevertheless, some investment banks seem keen to push the idea, for whatever reason (on the plus side it would keep gas cheap on the east coast in the coming years) - I always love when the sources have to remain anonymous, in this case for "compliance reasons" ! - China's LNG demand questioned.

As Australia prepares itself for the economic bonanza that will stem from the construction of LNG projects in Western Australia and Queensland, those keeping a close eye on how China is meeting its energy needs are raising their eyebrows at the Australian plans.

More than $200 billion in LNG projects is planned or already in construction, potentially leading Australia to challenge Qatar for the title of the world's biggest producer. Removed from the hysteria surrounding Australia's LNG construction frenzy, the Asia-based analysts who scrutinise China's energy needs are questioning whether China will be the increasingly LNG-hungry nation the Australian LNG proponents need it to be.

That's not to say China's gas demand isn't growing dramatically. The China Gas Association is tipping a fourfold increase in Chinese gas consumption by 2020, while state-owned energy giant PetroChina is tipping a trebling in demand over the same timeframe. The central government has mandated for China to increase its gas consumption over the coming years, in part on environmental grounds. Gas currently accounts for around 5 per cent of China's energy mix, compared with an average of around 20 per cent in other developed nations.

The problem for Australia, however, is that LNG is but one of a number of potential sources for gas. And when it comes to competing with those other sources, LNG is set to be the most expensive.

While China has been actively lining up sources of Australian LNG, including deals with the Chevron-led Gorgon and Wheatstone projects and a number of coal-seam gas-fed LNG developments in Queensland, it has also been securing a wide number of alternative supplies.

Much of the country's gas is already piped in from the Central Asian nation of Turkmenistan and there is talk of a new pipeline that could bring much more. China and Russia have been in discussions for several years over the prospect of piping gas in from Russia and if and when the deal is done, it will be at a price below that of LNG.

The stunning growth in gas reserves in North America following breakthroughs in shale gas and coal-seam gas technology has raised the prospect of Canada and the US exporting cheap LNG.

And the real wildcard is China's own domestic gas industry, which is looking to tap the same technology and techniques that have turned North American gas markets on their heads. Studies suggest that China could host as much, if not more, gas than North America and this could have a major impact on China's appetite for Australian LNG. ...

Another Hong Kong-based analyst, who cannot be named for compliance reasons, is also scratching his head over the demand picture facing Australian LNG projects. "Should they be worried? Absolutely," he says. "But not only because of the potential for shale in China but also because of gas out of Russia and pipeline gas out of Central Asia and also lower-cost potential LNG out of Canada and the US. All of it can be brought in at far below the rising cost of LNG out of Australia."

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GPS Data on Beijing Cabs Reveals the Cause of Traffic Jams

Technology Review has an article on using data from taxi GPS units to try to optimise road design to reduce traffic jams - GPS Data on Beijing Cabs Reveals the Cause of Traffic Jams.

Beijing is a city famous for traffic jams. In 2006, rush hour reportedly lasted 11 hours a day, and the city has been called a "virtual car park" during daylight hours. As in most major cities, urban planners have been trying for years to relieve the pressure by adding new roads or public transit lines, or providing better enforcement for traffic laws.

Now a group working at Microsoft Research Asia has shown that tracking the location of taxicabs could be a better way to identify the underlying problems with a city's transportation network, helping officials determine how to best ease congestion.

The researchers used GPS data from more than 33,000 Beijing taxicabs. That data was collected in 2009 and 2010. The researchers were not just looking for bottlenecks—trouble spots that regular commuters may know only too well. "[Congested] road segments are only the appearance—they're not the problem," says Yu Zheng, who led the research. "We try to identify the true source of the problem in our work."

The researchers presented their work last week at the 13th International Conference on Ubiquitous Computing, which took place in Beijing.

To get at underlying causes of traffic problems, the researchers needed to get information about the trips people are taking—where journeys start, finish, and how a commuter travels in between. The researchers divided Beijing into regions and analyzed the taxi data to find places where two regions weren't properly connected.

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